TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over58c10,746$6,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,518.896761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c9,564$5,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,033.623,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under33c9,526$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.949143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over48c8,767$4,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,548.8210041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over64c5,267$3,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.012,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under42c4,760$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over61c4,382$2,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.3228345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Under42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.985952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Over57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.972857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Under43c3,458$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under48c3,136$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.4448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.212548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under42c2,368$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.565349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under47c2,305$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.374040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0a…c1d9backed Over55c1,971$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under42c1,907$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.6769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over42c1,617$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.811843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under42c1,401$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.8328755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Under44c1,328$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Under43c1,150$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4704032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Over58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4208950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over58c900$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3788949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under31c876.87$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.336543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.075538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under31c861.51$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.119052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over58c840.68$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.088851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under43c822.8$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.271,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under42c673.09$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under50c650.9$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.959248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under25c623.2$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.838844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Over57c614.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.041637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under46c546.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0353140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under42c517$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.561,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under55c494.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.192729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under42c487.51$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7542046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Over58c485.32$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.832568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under22c483.61$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0333737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under44c466.25$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1520845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under45c437.29$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.45158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Under8c414$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.99205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8d…c822backed Over55c402.35$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Under29c397.7$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under42c349.98$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4916846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over57c338.58$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.599551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.339856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0503…8b4ebacked Under43c322.65$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under42c320$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.44650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Under7c307.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.01387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1295556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under42c287.06$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.569532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Under6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under42c244.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4133047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Under31c235.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004938.8%19 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6af5…992abacked Over58c215.52$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.52933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0875…9577backed Under47c214.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over71c201$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.292347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11238845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over59c170.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Over57c149.94$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.471346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Over75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Over55c127.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under47c120.86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.381,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.44252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a3…7c66backed Over48c118.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.75875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+35.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under16c117.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.487136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Under43c115.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.754969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Over58c112.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.072450%12 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under43c109.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.315040%20 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under42c106.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1211338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under49c104.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df6…c33bbacked Over46c97.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.832263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under42c93.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.378451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7291…78e2backed Under43c87.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Over58c85.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.973360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over50c85.6$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6339558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under42c85.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.89850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca0d…2602backed Under53c83.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over66c81.21$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.617750.6%39 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7736…c991backed Over58c78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.13862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405440.7%22 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under44c72.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.913145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Under42c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+74.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under62c66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.815429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over50c64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Under50c62.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.184339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Under42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.961353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Under43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed Over62c59.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.83158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fd…3914backed Over59c59.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over36c54.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.525358.5%31 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Over55c53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.