MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed73cb870dc6f1d4af071bd1a3d72b247c3de793ae980b1c33c61436f7149e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 43c | 7,073$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,061.44 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 58c | 5,142$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.92 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 58c | 2,155$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.9 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 43c | 2,112$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.63 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 56c | 1,745$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 591.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 434$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.63 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 344.47$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 215$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 111.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 111.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 67c | 101.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 62c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 59.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 58.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 40.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 38.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 27.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 67c | 27.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 58c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 53c | 20.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 57c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.