MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0beac0b9e978da2231bf3891922510f15f7422a9e9b4dbe95da04a96304955
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 3,841$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.15 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 2,389$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.92 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 1,268$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 842.03$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.07 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 713.46$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.33 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 672.85$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 660.02$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.21 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 625.28$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 542.21$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 405.4$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.53 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 365.82$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.47 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 336.6$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 306.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 255.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 197.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 130.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 105.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 100.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 22c | 89.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f8…17f1backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 53.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 50.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 50.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…8b52backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 43.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 40.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 34.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 30.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 23.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.