MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bf9ac55465a8a372ccb709028f37e61301db16d278342074a00016f7ab8d54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 63c | 12,376$7,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,753.87 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 5,541$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,519.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 39c | 3,492$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.6 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 29c | 3,105$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.22 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 2,932$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 2,154$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.33 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,060$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 1,009$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.77 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 885.91$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 46c | 631.04$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.76 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Over | 47c | 580.92$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 54c | 536$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 35c | 528.57$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.57 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 36c | 439.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.49 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…ce05backed Under | 62c | 416.72$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 47c | 413.18$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 342.12$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 46c | 315.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 47c | 213.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 208.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 46c | 197.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 46c | 197.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 46c | 197.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 37c | 195.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 46c | 177.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 38c | 172.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 145.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 142.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Over | 37c | 119.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 32c | 105.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 54c | 98.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 46c | 91.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 28c | 85.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 37c | 83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 14c | 78.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 62.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 47c | 61.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 62c | 51.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 45c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 55c | 42.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Over | 45c | 40.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 47c | 33.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 58c | 32.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Over | 42c | 29.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 27.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3e…186fbacked Over | 48c | 27.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 47c | 27.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Under | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 46c | 26.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 79c | 24.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 53c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 54c | 19.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…ac55backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.