MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f12f87f6446691a0d0040e191d2c1493adf4cfe1c2bb698c344b75535fe0cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Baltimore Orioles | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 625.12$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 443.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.05 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 404.05$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 332.16$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 225.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 198$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 169.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 148.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 128.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 70.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 66.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 65.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Cubs | 17c | 63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 37.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 37.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 34.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 16.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 15.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.