MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4116e917c392ac1d00c0e22fe5a61415eb991517ce52e5ad9065b6886e029e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 47c | 68,488$32,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,298.73 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 53c | 50,657$26,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,848.09 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 54c | 36,235$19,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,698.38 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 7,602$3,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,142.66 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 6,680$3,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,607.06 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 5,459$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.52 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…3839backed Under | 54c | 3,567$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.31 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Over | 46c | 3,093$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 56c | 3,015$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.28 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Over | 48c | 2,094$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.44 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,932$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.9 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 1,924$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.96 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 45c | 1,501$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.36 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,333$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.21 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 780$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.1 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…c2c1backed Under | 79c | 620.37$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 53c | 427.78$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 401.61$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.61 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 55c | 321.36$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 289.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 242.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…fc0abacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 47c | 205.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 63c | 196$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…b819backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 146.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c2…b137backed Under | 55c | 144.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…c65dbacked Over | 48c | 136.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 127$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Over | 47c | 125.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 119$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 47c | 111.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 55c | 101.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1483…48fabacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 47c | 86.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 32c | 85.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 46c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 58c | 65.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Over | 47c | 52.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 47c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 47c | 39.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 68c | 36.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 53c | 32.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…4c26backed Over | 48c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 28.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 55c | 28.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 27.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 53c | 26.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 47c | 26.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…69b1backed Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 62c | 18.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 71c | 15.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 15.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.