MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f6e66adab5bdaf0e237a0ebbcfe7fa45650b79bcd5bbac4c667909c5730c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 26,516$10,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,606.37 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 8,939$5,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 6,606$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 3,774$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 2,448$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 2,117$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 2,018$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.04 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…b0eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 1,921$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 979.09$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.29 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 577$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 534.01$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 508.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 469$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 461$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.03 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 346.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 302.03$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 297.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 214.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 199.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 143.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 131.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 128.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 122.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 100.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 90.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 89.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 82.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 80.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 74.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 63.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 39.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 34.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…ace0backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 29.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…91f4backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 25.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…8417backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 15.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.