Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f6bb46f8b0411ceef7e1f5d69d3ea97a23a7da5ea50bac284237b0b176ef03d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 46c | 3,133$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.3 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 43c | 2,203$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.59 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked Under | 49c | 1,644$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 1,614$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.57 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 50c | 1,575$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 865$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.85 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 52c | 576.88$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.33 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 49c | 410$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 379.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 52c | 375$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 4c | 251.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 49c | 217.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 16c | 193.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 43c | 189.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 63c | 174$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 129.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 49c | 127.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 74c | 111$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 78c | 101.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 22c | 97.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 52c | 87.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 77c | 84.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 50c | 82.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 49c | 75.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 60.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Under | 50c | 56.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Over | 51c | 43.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 51c | 38.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 49c | 32.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 49c | 32.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 62c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 49c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…ca8fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…5703backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.