Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80f22bcb39eab0c6f8f1035887cd7c9ad8618895bfbe963b99eb94dceae2f9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 31c | 32,177$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,176.98 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 59c | 8,008$4,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,741.54 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 69c | 6,988$4,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,807.64 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 68c | 4,800$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 3,500$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 2,961$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.29 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 68c | 2,500$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 1c | 1,381$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…fd69backed Under | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +288.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 69c | 1,132$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.08 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 69c | 1,132$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.08 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…513fbacked Over | 46c | 1,053$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 70c | 1,016$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.31 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 69c | 789.51$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.87 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 68c | 768.7$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.72 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 68c | 546$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.99 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 473.05$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 70c | 416.83$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 71c | 400$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 4c | 380$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 4c | 374.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 373.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 71c | 224$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 30c | 182$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 70c | 156.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 60c | 134.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 122.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 47c | 117.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 45c | 75.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 60.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 67c | 60.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 39c | 59.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 43c | 40.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 43c | 29.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8f24backed Under | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…6767backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…dddabacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 72c | 13.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.