Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chip Neiman be the Wyoming State Senate District 1 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa2fd10aaefca5453def5aebc83a594b5e744347abc716177b8cea02fed46bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 52c | 340.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 282.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 58c | 223$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 42c | 203.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 74c | 202.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 56c | 197$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 174.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 66c | 147$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 113.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…565fbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 67c | 91.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 87.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 35c | 87.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed No | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 74c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 60c | 45.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 40c | 44.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 40.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 65c | 34.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 72c | 31.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked Yes | 69c | 31.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 80c | 20.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 67c | 19.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chip Neiman be the Wyoming State Senate District 1 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Ogden Driskill be the Wyoming State Senate District 1 Republican nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.