Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fd23edbe70bf96210fb1cda09dc663f5503045aed574929afef75a8187fc8ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex de Minaurof Alex de Minaur, Adrian Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Adrian Mannarino | 5c | 36,416$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.66 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Adrian Mannarino | 11c | 12,623$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.54 | 566 | 51.8%293 W · 273 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 8,820$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.24 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Adrian Mannarino | 18c | 5,004$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.14 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Adrian Mannarino | 18c | 4,128$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 3,122$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.62 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 2,795$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.28 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 2,000$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.91 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Adrian Mannarino | 9c | 1,939$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Adrian Mannarino | 6c | 1,872$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 1,697$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.13 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 1,621$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Adrian Mannarino | 9c | 1,578$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…fec9backed Adrian Mannarino | 10c | 1,494$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Adrian Mannarino | 3c | 1,392$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Adrian Mannarino | 4c | 1,243$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 1,200$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 1,140$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 1,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…aca3backed Adrian Mannarino | 4c | 999.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Adrian Mannarino | 11c | 981.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f16…701dbacked Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 821.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…37e3backed Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 711.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 702$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 639.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 439 | 52.4%230 W · 209 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Adrian Mannarino | 2c | 631.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…e8e1backed Adrian Mannarino | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 599.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…9441backed Adrian Mannarino | 10c | 569.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 564.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Adrian Mannarino | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183e…d2b2backed Adrian Mannarino | 8c | 524.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 524.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Adrian Mannarino | 9c | 521.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 499.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Adrian Mannarino | 18c | 479.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 432.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Adrian Mannarino | 3c | 389.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Adrian Mannarino | 10c | 384.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 483 | 31.1%150 W · 333 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Adrian Mannarino | 17c | 380$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…13d4backed Adrian Mannarino | 19c | 319.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Adrian Mannarino | 20c | 305.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Adrian Mannarino | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Adrian Mannarino | 7c | 248.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 242.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 229.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Adrian Mannarino | 12c | 222.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Adrian Mannarino | 10c | 201.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc5…908abacked Adrian Mannarino | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 587 | 53.7%315 W · 272 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Adrian Mannarino | 16c | 199.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…82c7backed Adrian Mannarino | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 44cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Adrian Mannarino | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Adrian Mannarino | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Adrian Mannarino | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Adrian Mannarino | 20c | 109.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…dfcfbacked Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 258 | 58.1%150 W · 108 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Adrian Mannarino | 13c | 105.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Adrian Mannarino | 17c | 102.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Alex de Minaur | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Adrian Mannarino | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Adrian Mannarino | 15c | 97.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Alex de Minaur | 80c | 82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Adrian Mannarino | 19c | 65.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Alex de Minaur | 78c | 55.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,065 | 57.4%611 W · 454 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Alex de Minaur | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Adrian Mannarinothis page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Minaur vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs MannarinoMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Minaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Mannarino (+2.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.