TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Adrian Mannarino

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex de Minaurof Alex de Minaur, Adrian Mannarino
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Adrian Mannarino5c36,416$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.668,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Adrian Mannarino11c12,623$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.5456651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Adrian Mannarino16c8,820$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.2458232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Adrian Mannarino18c5,004$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.143,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Adrian Mannarino18c4,128$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Adrian Mannarino12c3,122$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.6276146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Adrian Mannarino15c2,795$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.281,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Adrian Mannarino16c2,000$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.912,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Adrian Mannarino9c1,939$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.518,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Adrian Mannarino6c1,872$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12038911.6%45 W · 344 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Adrian Mannarino13c1,697$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.133,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Adrian Mannarino13c1,621$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7578536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Adrian Mannarino9c1,578$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.017951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf437…fec9backed Adrian Mannarino10c1,494$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Adrian Mannarino3c1,392$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.021028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Adrian Mannarino4c1,243$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.634,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Adrian Mannarino14c1,200$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1627,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Adrian Mannarino12c1,140$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8456827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Adrian Mannarino15c1,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.461,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Adrian Mannarino13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd578…aca3backed Adrian Mannarino4c999.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Adrian Mannarino11c981.82$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084052.5%21 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f16…701dbacked Adrian Mannarino14c821.43$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1157938%30 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Adrian Mannarino13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda70…37e3backed Adrian Mannarino7c711.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Adrian Mannarino12c702$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2499249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Adrian Mannarino16c639.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2243952.4%230 W · 209 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Adrian Mannarino2c631.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…e8e1backed Adrian Mannarino8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Adrian Mannarino16c599.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9336435.2%128 W · 236 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed Adrian Mannarino10c569.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5711143.2%48 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Adrian Mannarino7c564.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.121,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Adrian Mannarino19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034637.9%131 W · 215 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183e…d2b2backed Adrian Mannarino8c524.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.972045%9 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Adrian Mannarino16c524.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.022,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Adrian Mannarino9c521.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.682,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Adrian Mannarino12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Adrian Mannarino12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Adrian Mannarino14c499.96$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.671,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Adrian Mannarino18c479.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Adrian Mannarino13c432.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2848214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Adrian Mannarino3c389.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.114456.8%25 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Adrian Mannarino10c384.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4048331.1%150 W · 333 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Adrian Mannarino17c380$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.31,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Adrian Mannarino14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b7…13d4backed Adrian Mannarino19c319.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Adrian Mannarino20c305.55$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1155032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Adrian Mannarino16c250$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.753,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Adrian Mannarino19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.53,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47d9…54b7backed Adrian Mannarino7c248.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.133432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Adrian Mannarino14c242.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.791,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Adrian Mannarino14c229.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9183447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Adrian Mannarino12c222.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.661,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Adrian Mannarino10c201.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.174,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Adrian Mannarino11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Adrian Mannarino16c199.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.191,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…82c7backed Adrian Mannarino20c175$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick44cpaid-79.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Adrian Mannarino19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Adrian Mannarino14c143$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91e…a433backed Adrian Mannarino18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Adrian Mannarino20c109.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5663537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8951…dfcfbacked Adrian Mannarino15c106$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.925858.1%150 W · 108 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Adrian Mannarino13c105.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed Adrian Mannarino17c102.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.485152.9%27 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Alex de Minaur80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28be…6dbebacked Adrian Mannarino20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023536.6%86 W · 149 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Adrian Mannarino15c97.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92532%8 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Alex de Minaur80c82$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.496755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Adrian Mannarino19c65.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Alex de Minaur78c55.38$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.231,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Alex de Minaur79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.