Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fd4004e3ac04f5b3731a5c5421babc80ad6b07e66eb79ed0690f36038b6cc0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes | 19c | 123,051$23,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,003.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…9188backed Yes | 20c | 15,877$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…35d9backed Yes | 18c | 9,996$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 2,380$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.4 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Yes | 1c | 2,277$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 1,673$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.32 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1de…9165backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 78c | 766.29$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 4c | 757.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 137 | 27%37 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 660.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 79c | 568.46$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…c507backed Yes | 18c | 549$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…aaa2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 17c | 430$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 5c | 425.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…e9b1backed Yes | 17c | 409$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…8aa5backed No | 79c | 362.94$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…eb14backed Yes | 20c | 275$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 12c | 161.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…28a4backed Yes | 18c | 152.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 78c | 116.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 17c | 114.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 114$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…9134backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…70f0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 17c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…667abacked Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 75.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0363…d67abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?this page
- Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.