Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fde91d3ab174d6177dee220f7f2b352c147fcd73f0834b473df20662ac504d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 674.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 27c | 601.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.46 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 537.51$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.28 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 267.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 256.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 207.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 58c | 151.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 44c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 18c | 121.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 75c | 115.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 64c | 111.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 111.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 44c | 108.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 39c | 104.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 102.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 101.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 41c | 78.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 36c | 73.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 15c | 68.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 68.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 67.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 67.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 61.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 56.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 53.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 47.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 42c | 42.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 31.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed Yes | 49c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 22.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.