Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87cf058d8eac6ae2a6ef918709529950bc6d7e58d97c061fbc9f4cca5ca148f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 526.28$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 423.02$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 350$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 39c | 319.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.8 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 64c | 313.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 4c | 313.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 56c | 302$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.53 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 45c | 195.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 190.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 162.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 144.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 129.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 88.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 84.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 49c | 80.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 75.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 58c | 67.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 61.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9e…4351backed Yes | 52c | 58.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 57.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 57.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 56.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 46.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 45.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 45.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 41.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 46c | 38.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 36.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 48c | 35.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed Yes | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 45c | 32.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 28.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 45c | 27.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 25.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 47c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 24.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 24.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.