MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500fba2dabcfcc142eab30d78344a79e0759b8031a65b13a8934dfdd7df75ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 1,695$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 1,586$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 1,040$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 1,011$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 906.98$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.37 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 636.79$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 576.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 335.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 300.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 282.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 282.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 276.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 155.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked San Francisco Giants | 24c | 96.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 96.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 87.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 75.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…f228backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 60.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 59.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 50.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 41.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 27.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.