MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x218b0c964da0ab14ba753f27668031b715b648812fdd97cccfe3882dae99ed40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 1,233$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,012$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 888.6$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.71 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 765.87$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.19 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 746.1$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.82 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 625.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 607.31$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 15c | 496.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 7c | 388.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 367.08$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 15c | 203.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 179.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Tampa Bay Rays | 10c | 164.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 147.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 146.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 10c | 132.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 110.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 103.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 102.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 65.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 49.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 38.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 38.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 37.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.