MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3d55c45f44a802376160d8220122ded2d15824d32fc3a6c8708088296a1a06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 52c | 2,097$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.34 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 47c | 952.25$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.91 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 900$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 581.93$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.33 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 380$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Over | 48c | 289.35$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 227.01$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 213.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 56c | 170.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 157$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 127.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 51c | 126.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 118.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 105.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 49c | 96.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 81.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 64.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 46c | 60.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 59.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 38.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.