Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5021527a2baeb1595eb1a1ccd6dacb70517a511057bd9e1d6b8885d56ae02037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 662.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 209.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 201.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 64c | 196.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 191.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 186.8$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 137$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 121.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 120.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 113.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 113.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 110$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 106.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 26c | 101$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 99.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 99.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…0edebacked No | 74c | 96.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 94.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 89.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 79.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 77.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 69.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 67.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 37c | 63.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 60.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 58.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 57.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 23c | 56.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 23c | 54.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 53.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 24c | 52.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 52.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 26c | 48.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 46.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 45.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 43.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 43.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 39.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 38.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 36.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 35.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 31.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 27.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 27.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 75c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 13.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.