Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Maya Joint
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x502329c8321465dfce03c2beff25bebf6d0c1bea67cba6559abee1333de2e1fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jointof Sakatsume, Joint
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Sakatsume | 25c | 21,651$5,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,348.95 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Joint | 73c | 7,365$5,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Joint | 69c | 4,334$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.13 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Joint | 77c | 3,663$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Joint | 65c | 3,150$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.32 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Joint | 54c | 2,042$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.67 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…7b32backed Joint | 45c | 1,999$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Sakatsume | 44c | 1,727$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.06 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…79dfbacked Joint | 60c | 1,659$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Joint | 70c | 1,613$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.3 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Joint | 72c | 1,563$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.16 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…3047backed Sakatsume | 31c | 1,526$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.08 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Joint | 69c | 1,150$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.47 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd694…ed0abacked Sakatsume | 28c | 1,060$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02dd…d213backed Joint | 61c | 1,027$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Joint | 73c | 1,000$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…fd7bbacked Joint | 62c | 1,000$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Sakatsume | 25c | 921.22$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.28 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Sakatsume | 25c | 911.61$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.52 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Joint | 75c | 870.17$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Sakatsume | 10c | 785.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +97%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Sakatsume | 20c | 526.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Sakatsume | 58c | 432.41$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Sakatsume | 33c | 363.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Joint | 69c | 338.82$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed Joint | 74c | 300$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Sakatsume | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d0…7b84backed Joint | 68c | 294.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9f…48ebbacked Joint | 80c | 286.55$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Sakatsume | 49c | 234.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…b2e2backed Sakatsume | 22c | 229.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Sakatsume | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…3878backed Sakatsume | 22c | 177.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Sakatsume | 27c | 168$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Sakatsume | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Joint | 72c | 146.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sakatsume | 27c | 142.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…3bc3backed Sakatsume | 48c | 137.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Joint | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…a005backed Sakatsume | 48c | 123.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Joint | 56c | 115.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…61fcbacked Sakatsume | 33c | 105.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Sakatsume | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Sakatsume | 20c | 100.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Sakatsume | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88d…1da9backed Sakatsume | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Sakatsume | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…308abacked Sakatsume | 46c | 80.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…6fcebacked Joint | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sakatsume | 23c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Joint | 54c | 74.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x075c…d827backed Joint | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sakatsume | 23c | 61.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Joint | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Sakatsume | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…e238backed Joint | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Joint | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Joint | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7b…c0a4backed Joint | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Joint | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sakatsume | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…c65dbacked Joint | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…bca7backed Sakatsume | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…0aeebacked Joint | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Joint | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Joint | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9e…ae2cbacked Joint | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Joint | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Joint | 75c | 34.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…9043backed Joint | 73c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Joint | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed Joint | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Joint | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Joint | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe25…ce67backed Sakatsume | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…7165backed Joint | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Joint | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Joint | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…7d86backed Joint | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 74cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.