South American Leagues · resolved market
FC Juárez vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5048b1d79e8f7ca9d33c9a9ee1cf3f2b967b74a0e79c0aa21b70df2feb4ace05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 7,503$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.86 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 20c | 1,465$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 974.21$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.75 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 53c | 928.3$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.14 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 53c | 858.61$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.1 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 619.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 36c | 588$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.38 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 47c | 506.55$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.76 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 26c | 473.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 33c | 445$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…28dabacked Under | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 10c | 266.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 68c | 214.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 24c | 209.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 70c | 186.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 68c | 186$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 18c | 132.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 28c | 107.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5926…a9debacked Over | 20c | 96.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 72.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 71.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 68c | 71.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 68c | 71.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 68c | 71.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 68c | 71.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 68c | 71.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 18c | 62.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 49c | 61.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 77c | 60.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…23f8backed Under | 49c | 51.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…0badbacked Over | 38c | 39.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…cfa6backed Under | 62c | 38.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 68c | 28.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 68c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Under | 62c | 16.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Juárez vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Juárez vs. Club Tijuana: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Juárez vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Juárez vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Juárez vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Tijuana (-1.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: Club Tijuana (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Club Tijuana won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5)Club Tijuana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.