Lionel Messi: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5090a7aaea84734edaa8f8c651a542e6165e5813b99c2e9b3117efb5ab3234e0

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,221 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	5c	5,401$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,145.57	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d4…2983backed Yes	6c	4,031$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,792.04	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a23…a980backed Yes	5c	1,677$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,597.59	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.39per pick	21cpaid	+420.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	72c	464.62$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.39	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	69c	421.81$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.55	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked No	5c	341$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6592…2767backed Yes	7c	297.42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.42	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	6c	201$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.16	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes	7c	200$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.2	177	27.1%48 W · 129 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…a5a7backed Yes	7c	180$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.58	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80e…cad8backed Yes	28c	158.38$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.37	40	35%14 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…3e18backed Yes	50c	155.37$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.47	132	68.2%90 W · 42 L	+20.0wins	+0.15per pick	53cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x88fc…eda8backed Yes	46c	108.18$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.18	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes	40c	104$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.5	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0326…3daebacked Yes	37c	67.57$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.57	190	31.6%60 W · 130 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…f755backed Yes	37c	53.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.64	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d8…2e25backed Yes	39c	51.81$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.81	76	36.8%28 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…5e80backed Yes	35c	48.04$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.37	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lionel Messi: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event