Fifa International · resolved market
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe600a18f23d707d730aa29c6907ac282bbe35d1ac81d297b82f8d19d00fa7a66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 72c | 791.34$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.92 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 75c | 431.54$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 74c | 413.55$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed No | 76c | 249.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 128 | 71.9%92 W · 36 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…3e8ebacked Yes | 25c | 237$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 70c | 215.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…799cbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 254 | 37.4%95 W · 159 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…e49abacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 12c | 115.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…d0d9backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…fba6backed Yes | 25c | 101.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 144 | 27.8%40 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 94.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 63c | 85.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 76.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…615fbacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 63c | 50.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 333 | 50.5%168 W · 165 L | +24.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…1a7ebacked Yes | 26c | 48.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…f2e0backed Yes | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 60c | 40.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…d3bfbacked Yes | 40c | 37.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…d351backed Yes | 47c | 33.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…291abacked Yes | 34c | 29.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 28.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…33f3backed No | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsthis page
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goalsNo won
- Amine Gouiri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goalsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsYes won
- Luca Zidane: 4+ savesNo won
- Thiago Almada: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.