Lionel Messi: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2205688a6e80ccc3650c05088ac72265e0c7d6d06099c473fdd3f762472d7ae7

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,367 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe4d4…2983backed Yes	17c	5,078$867 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,210.17	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	71c	2,930$2,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,082.73	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	16c	2,856$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,399.56	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5687…bc04backed No	1c	1,912$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Yes	17c	1,206$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.88	193	17.1%33 W · 160 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	14c	999.99$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$859.99	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6592…2767backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.56	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd35b…4a53backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…ea73backed Yes	45c	445$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.75	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Yes	17c	441.18$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.18	226	43.4%98 W · 128 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Yes	16c	362.5$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.5	229	19.2%44 W · 185 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8473…8f23backed Yes	16c	312.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.5	109	37.6%41 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	109	31.2%34 W · 75 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e0…32dfbacked Yes	17c	294.12$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.12	173	45.1%78 W · 95 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6898…19d4backed Yes	19c	263.95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.95	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5f…fc3cbacked Yes	47c	240$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.2	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes	14c	189.98$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.38	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.25	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.36	69	29%20 W · 49 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…7816backed Yes	18c	111.76$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.76	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.11	291	38.8%113 W · 178 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	31c	107$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.9	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked No	21c	95.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80e…cad8backed Yes	22c	93.3$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.6	40	35%14 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…f755backed Yes	19c	79.94$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.94	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38c…371ebacked Yes	16c	79.38$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.68	201	33.8%68 W · 133 L	+14.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba34…32b8backed Yes	52c	69.32$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.32	261	51.7%135 W · 126 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…02b0backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	365	34.2%125 W · 240 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	33c	36.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.36	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6621…22ccbacked Yes	79c	31.77$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.53	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	65c	21.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…23d2backed Yes	48c	20.89$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7839…33f3backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lionel Messi: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event