Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31a7ce92bc25bdaa81786f1dd28594923b3e6b2d23d6f5e26327be3d56a0940

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,769 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf438…9559backed No	62c	16,015$9,930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,084.75	144	49.3%71 W · 73 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	38c	15,489$5,886 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,885.82	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No	57c	1,423$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611.68	192	52.1%100 W · 92 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Yes	40c	1,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	385	26.8%103 W · 282 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	60c	997.62$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.05	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc843…32b7backed Yes	43c	697.91$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes	42c	499.62$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	109	31.2%34 W · 75 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	69c	262.5$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.5	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e74…ec81backed Yes	43c	232.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	286	26.9%77 W · 209 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67a8…d351backed Yes	38c	131.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No	58c	129.94$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.58	243	44.4%108 W · 135 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Yes	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	291	38.5%112 W · 179 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd875…19cfbacked Yes	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	228	24.6%56 W · 172 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No	60c	115$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	379	59.1%224 W · 155 L	+20.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	30c	78$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…4d2bbacked Yes	38c	73.68$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	79c	72$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	42c	71.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	62c	55.12$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Yes	47c	53.28$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	166	29.5%49 W · 117 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	61c	38.94$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.15	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No	58c	32.36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.59	172	71.5%123 W · 49 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed No	52c	32.27$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.49	333	50.5%168 W · 165 L	+24.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf37d…a88bbacked Yes	43c	32.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	63c	27.25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.05	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf89…0fb1backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes	43c	23.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	70	58.6%41 W · 29 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked No	61c	22.82$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.9	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	59c	20.87$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.56	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	79c	16$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.36	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c0f…d5dbbacked No	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event