Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50bdbe0639f821aed6026d4aa38d0617f14e104eaa87cf24fb75617fa524cdaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 37c | 2,000$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 1,310$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.47 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 46c | 624.32$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 618.54$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 333$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 27c | 325.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 307.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 248.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 235.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 71c | 111.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 17c | 105.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 38c | 96.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 24c | 95.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 94.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 61c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 29c | 83.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…6ddabacked Over | 43c | 65.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 29c | 63.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 45c | 55.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 24c | 49.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 35c | 47.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 45.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 64c | 41.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 38c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 70c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.