Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50c2edaf42c4c422ff0671538c0e03756d12195b0a4b46b35645ac20b5eca596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 2,204$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,488$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 785.81$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 572.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 14c | 493.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 435.94$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 36c | 290.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 255$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 247.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 233.84$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 223.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 177$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 18c | 163.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 12c | 162.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 31c | 159.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 150.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 145.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 143.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 138.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 137.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 23c | 135.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 11c | 118.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 115.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 16c | 111.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 18c | 104.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 87.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 82.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 17c | 74.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 60.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 21c | 55.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 70c | 48.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 47.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 74c | 45.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…174bbacked Yes | 24c | 40.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…1baabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 70c | 30.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 25.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.