Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb1f0a988f4b2548a67d756eaf1659ed64ca9fb9c4e9c6f4d6b06044c76c7dca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 1,334$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.12 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 941$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 37c | 705.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.49 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 574.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.3 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 458.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 429.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 418.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.74 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 408.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 377.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 73c | 375$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 358.82$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 8c | 325.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.28 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 24c | 322.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.85 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 33c | 296.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 31c | 291.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.08 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 269.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 244.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 17c | 228.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.96 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 214$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 202.88$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 185$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 182.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 26c | 181.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 172.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 155.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 147.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 137.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 30c | 121.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 77c | 120.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 118.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 39c | 117.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 113.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 102.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 18c | 102.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 101.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 97.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 93.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…8940backed Yes | 35c | 93.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 82.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 75.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 72c | 68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 67.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 58.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 64c | 55.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 52.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 50.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 51c | 44.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 28c | 42.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 68c | 37.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 32.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 32.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 42c | 32.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 75c | 30.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 30.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 29.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 27.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 22.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…619abacked No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 70c | 19.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 73c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 13.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 13.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.