Movies · resolved market
Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 19m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d655a249ac5c42026b2f8a1c037ae0ea8de2b5e5264603ddf4eff9eb18f2d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 78c | 1,757$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.57 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 698.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 697.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 55c | 660.86$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.97 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 73c | 529.36$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 482.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 21c | 410$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 3c | 386.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 320$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 14c | 257.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 79c | 224.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 199.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 79c | 177.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 25c | 104.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 75c | 72.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 80c | 66.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 63.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 73c | 44.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 75c | 32.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 31.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…648cbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 74c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…3620backed Yes | 76c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 78c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 19m?this page
- Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17.5m?No won
- Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?No won
- Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20.5m and 22m?No won
- Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.