Fifa International · resolved market
Australia vs. Egypt: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5119157b4afeb1d7f745f7566d8537df4fc1c0e8c8212432455ade41aa5bac57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 3,810$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…fababacked Yes | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 1,617$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.96 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed No | 76c | 1,543$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.39 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 42c | 639$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…13d2backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed No | 76c | 460.53$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 373.51$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 22c | 284.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 59c | 272.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed Yes | 41c | 271.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 204.93$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 202$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 7c | 195.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 244 | 43%105 W · 139 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Yes | 22c | 195$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +10.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 79c | 171.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Yes | 41c | 170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…8e1cbacked Yes | 31c | 163.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 26c | 162.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 10c | 155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 420 | 43.1%181 W · 239 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Yes | 11c | 135.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 69c | 87.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24a…45b1backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 39c | 68.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…1467backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australia vs. Egypt: Second half draw?this page
- Australia to win the second half?Yes won
- Egypt to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.