Fifa International · resolved market
Australia to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd62196ef1c7b175bcae791a01a1ccb53135160d9d3d6324578d6740e87ef1532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.97 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,215$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.11 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 2,339$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.92 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 75c | 868.23$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 63c | 860.65$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.67 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 37c | 501.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 64c | 442.68$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.58 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 36c | 373.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…163abacked Yes | 70c | 305$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed Yes | 24c | 271.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.15 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 76c | 248.38$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 202$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 332 | 37.3%124 W · 208 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 16c | 184.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 319 | 45.5%145 W · 174 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed No | 33c | 172$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…13d2backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 67c | 109.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1c…eb60backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c6…4366backed Yes | 32c | 81.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…5cd6backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…8af4backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 60.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 197 | 60.4%119 W · 78 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…7f29backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 35c | 40.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…003ebacked Yes | 71c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australia to win the second half?this page
- Australia vs. Egypt: Second half draw?No won
- Egypt to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.