Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512ea958ebfb8bd8463e54e81e66024e0a942d114f83149930319a438501983d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 405.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 74c | 318.04$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 191.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 151.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 143.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 131.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 24c | 103.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 102.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 22c | 93.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 87.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 83.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 32c | 76.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 22c | 72.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 17c | 70.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 23c | 60.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 21c | 55.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 55.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 54.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 53.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 76c | 52.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 50.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 49.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 39.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 38.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 37.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 75c | 36.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 28.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 61c | 28.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 74c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…61bebacked Yes | 59c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 62c | 26.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 25.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 24.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 74c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 57c | 20.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 76c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.