Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54fdcd03cd42d6c1ed84a9b8ac996b4dc6ece2d9e7886cb053eeab5062297603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 810.29$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 53c | 604.75$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.69 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 43c | 411.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 390.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 72c | 225.8$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 205.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.22 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 43c | 194.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 51c | 188.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 52c | 170.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 169.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 162.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 21c | 153.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 23c | 135.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 53c | 133.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 129.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 124.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 113.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 112.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 110.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 41c | 104.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 78c | 102.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…99c6backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 98.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 97.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 92.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 84.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1fb5backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 67c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 68.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 24c | 67.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 78c | 60.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 34c | 59.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 53.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 51.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 75c | 49.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 59c | 49.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 47c | 42.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 72c | 40.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 34c | 33.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 79c | 32.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 29.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 28.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 42c | 28.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 49c | 23.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 63c | 21.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…11afbacked No | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…1ef1backed No | 75c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 76c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 80c | 17.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.