Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x514fe5e4c3b9439dedbb3c4b1e92ade049e790867bd86b3cd48bba435fb0692c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Fenerbahçe SK, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Fenerbahçe SK | 5c | 2,234$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 47c | 2,116$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Fenerbahçe SK | 17c | 1,250$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 18c | 1,233$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 7c | 1,040$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…fc2abacked Fenerbahçe SK | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 5c | 999.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Fenerbahçe SK | 19c | 718$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 24c | 629.42$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Fenerbahçe SK | 6c | 583.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Fenerbahçe SK | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Fenerbahçe SK | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Fenerbahçe SK | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…c3cbbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 46c | 332.29$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 5c | 325.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 295.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Fenerbahçe SK | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Fenerbahçe SK | 17c | 142.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Fenerbahçe SK | 22c | 127.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 22c | 110.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Fenerbahçe SK | 18c | 92.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Nottingham Forest FC | 49c | 22.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.