Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94ce5eff45c175de59dda25c0dd3ca30302b0ff5e1084b0f33ee05776adbe11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 19c | 4,800$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.83 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 19c | 3,290$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.17 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 2,747$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 15c | 803.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Under | 14c | 802.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Under | 18c | 702.38$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 676.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 17c | 629.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 623.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 618.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 23c | 514.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 417.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…2c49backed Under | 24c | 412.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 19c | 248.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 79c | 245$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Over | 80c | 137.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 80c | 102.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…b0e6backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…7a9dbacked Under | 21c | 82.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed Over | 79c | 68.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…9716backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 60.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 79c | 39.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Over | 76c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…2856backed Over | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 78c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a18…4b83backed Over | 76c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.