Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5167ed8631fba4b50a433b150846b1868725f725f765c2c78aa791a38c7b472f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 4c | 679.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 660.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 64c | 521.38$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.61 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 3c | 429.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 47c | 422.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 4c | 365.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed No | 10c | 289.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 10c | 253.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 209.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 113.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 113.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 110.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 109.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 106.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 103.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 99.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 74c | 98.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 96.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 51c | 93.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 12c | 91.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 31c | 78.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 43c | 75.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 72.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 72.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…add7backed No | 39c | 71.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 22c | 67.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 66.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 33c | 63.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 69c | 62.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 55c | 60.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 57c | 60.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 29c | 60.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…a0dcbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 49.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 46.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 44.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 44.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 44.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 27c | 43.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 63c | 41.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 52c | 41.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 39.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 63c | 38.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 46c | 30.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 51c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 75c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 20.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 61c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 72c | 14.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.