Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5170ead174244c290692d6f946538a9f5fa80a89de8e184d982e4c6ecbcb1c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 73c | 25,640$18,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,920.57 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 27c | 19,000$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 27c | 2,777$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.79 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 2,100$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 1,735$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 74c | 1,585$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.38 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 1,050$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.64 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 735.88$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 674.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 555.77$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 495.29$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…dd05backed Yes | 32c | 443.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 34c | 295.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 215.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…4efdbacked Yes | 18c | 204.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 76c | 130.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 129.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Yes | 24c | 105.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 27c | 102.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 26c | 98.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c26…3ce6backed Yes | 28c | 52.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed No | 75c | 51.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x590d…572dbacked Yes | 32c | 47.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…89c9backed Yes | 26c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb08…5630backed Yes | 27c | 39.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 73c | 34.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked No | 78c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 75c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 76c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 76c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 76c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 74c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-08-07?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-08-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.