TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-08-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Yes64c7,904$5,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.728345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No27c6,089$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.872,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d74…a37fbacked No35c5,582$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes64c4,678$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.263,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No38c2,934$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.14264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No42c2,774$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.9643532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…97cfbacked No1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…4633backed Yes66c2,273$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No41c2,242$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.0948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed No27c1,894$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Yes62c1,420$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed No37c1,416$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.586428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde39…2fa1backed No31c1,217$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.182218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcba…c950backed Yes65c861.41$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No23c788.67$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.251,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No33c772.13$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6981732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Yes64c760.85$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb6…9fe0backed Yes76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked No41c590.38$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8944…da4bbacked Yes59c451.32$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c373.94$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.922221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xadbc…8af3backed Yes32c372.93$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39e7…ceedbacked Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Yes80c327.05$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.411844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Yes66c322.61$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.954454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Yes66c319.89$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.844753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20414364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f39…e279backed No33c299.11$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes64c283$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.834650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No36c275.21$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-72.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c248.81$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6811447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No16c247.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed No22c238.68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.446640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes32c237.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3612560.8%76 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x276a…fc66backed No69c232$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.08475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Yes32c203.13$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked No19c199.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d4c…f8bbbacked No68c196$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed No36c180.87$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.429265.2%60 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed No30c177.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x639f…75f0backed Yes60c166.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac69…3c46backed No40c166.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Yes64c161.61$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.032560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed Yes58c159.74$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.774360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeda…8e35backed No35c149.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460c…b5b5backed Yes65c111.34$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.442860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1586…b94abacked Yes73c103.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.773100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…f72abacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked No68c99.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked No33c98.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2c…00b5backed No35c98.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Yes67c78.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.792055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Yes65c76.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Yes65c71.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.065100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3600…d8a6backed No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes67c70.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.271050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60ac…7ad0backed No42c66.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed No69c62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.521040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75fa…f90ebacked No46c60.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca10backed No42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c26…3ce6backed Yes60c52.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes63c50.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.653366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a29…cd80backed Yes65c49.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+96.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes65c46.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…7ae1backed Yes65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4c…1940backed Yes58c44.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a6e…bd37backed Yes30c43.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.331060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes64c38.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013f…ca85backed Yes65c37.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.43850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f5…0ea0backed No71c36.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3491…0242backed No41c34.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f8b…b723backed Yes60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No69c31.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6833047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No65c27.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.011861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1040…ac10backed Yes68c26.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Yes70c26.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No68c25.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Yes64c24.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.813056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes65c23.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0339857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes56c22.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105276.9%40 W · 12 L+13.0wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+72%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Yes66c22.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.526946.4%32 W · 37 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes63c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.045064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26cd…2c85backed Yes60c21.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed No67c21.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Yes65c21.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.491973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8264043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Yes72c15.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.