NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c39864e552dd33e317db7ada5553a81de9167e4fded535172fdfa17f6d2bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Timberwolves | 51c | 9,612$4,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,863.43 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 2,671$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.32 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Nuggets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,452$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.17 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 765.72$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.86 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Nuggets | 48c | 738.91$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.62 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 666.71$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Timberwolves | 52c | 616.02$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nuggets | 50c | 561$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Nuggets | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Nuggets | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nuggets | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Nuggets | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 45c | 375$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 54c | 262$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Nuggets | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Timberwolves | 56c | 156.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Nuggets | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Timberwolves | 55c | 91.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Nuggets | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nuggets | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Nuggets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Timberwolves | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…2df3backed Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.