NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe749d7b8a26d9b63d0a645a66e34c273ac241e7deafef98d880dcc98a8f3a90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Nuggets | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Timberwolves | 50c | 14,332$7,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,165.79 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 50c | 9,508$4,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,754 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…3ec1backed Timberwolves | 48c | 8,990$4,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,352.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…5696backed Nuggets | 53c | 8,990$4,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,225.3 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 6,940$3,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.01 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 52c | 6,630$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Timberwolves | 48c | 4,804$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.01 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Nuggets | 55c | 3,245$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.24 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,997$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.78 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,763$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,324$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.83 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 1,165$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.75 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 48c | 631.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Nuggets | 56c | 562.86$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.66 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…84cebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Timberwolves | 49c | 343$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…361dbacked Nuggets | 55c | 299.27$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Nuggets | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…9639backed Timberwolves | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Timberwolves | 45c | 196.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Nuggets | 54c | 184.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 183$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fc45backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -16.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Nuggets | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 304 | 44.7%136 W · 168 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 52c | 93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nuggets | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…ce57backed Nuggets | 55c | 50.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Nuggets | 49c | 35.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Nuggets | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Timberwolves | 41c | 30.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Timberwolves | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0555…cc10backed Timberwolves | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nuggets | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nuggets | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Nuggets | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.