Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e122d99acc6ee202eef3aed757b852d0d5f59bea45903f2e108bc461658ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7805…6396backed Yes | 0c | 14,019$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 376.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 297.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 25c | 207$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 162.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 16c | 140.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 30c | 135$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 134.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Yes | 66c | 125.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 14c | 121$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 120.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 32c | 108.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 23c | 98.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 95.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd5…17cbbacked Yes | 31c | 81.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 62.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 58.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 41c | 56.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 53.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 52c | 48.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Yes | 24c | 48.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 47.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 39c | 40.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 39.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 44c | 32.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 56c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 57c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 44c | 25.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 23.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.