TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8d7…382cbacked Yes0c10,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c5,223$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.281,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No69c1,050$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c851.06$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c445.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.663,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c367$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.165,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No43c344.02$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5751762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd5…17cbbacked Yes44c290.56$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No16c248.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes68c240.61$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5356048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No19c240.42$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.193,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No16c222.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No63c199.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7316046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c164.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No11c164.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c150.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.744,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No20c145.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.971,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No20c128.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9123845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes50c114.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1320358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No25c108.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.662,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No37c104.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.074,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes31c102$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.134651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c100.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes29c96.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c2…0c32backed No63c89.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.112356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No58c89.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.851,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.424,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes34c79.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.24731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad6…15c8backed Yes39c77.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c68.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.742,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c64.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.569,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c63.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8818041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes69c61.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.271,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c58.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.179,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c53.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No20c52.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3829717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked No54c50.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.471,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620173.1%147 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No35c48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.241,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No36c45.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.88,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No34c41.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6620431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No63c41.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.22,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes59c41.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.617644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes38c39.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed Yes61c35.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9280957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8812174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c33.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No45c32.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0122344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed Yes74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2241760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.866735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes36c29.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8622932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No68c29.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.52,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes38c29.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0211025.5%28 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cf…e3babacked Yes41c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45ee…983cbacked Yes35c28.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107152.1%37 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed No53c28.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.155658.9%33 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No58c26.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No62c25.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.742,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No66c25.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6323668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No62c24.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No53c23.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9511038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.051,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No62c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No71c21.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0317071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No62c18.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9162770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No65c17.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2957264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c17.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.424,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No67c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.239362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.