F1 · resolved market
F1 Dutch GP: Verstappen vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f7ddf6709fa507cac6043913f71025e8f58d9dd4899d7e37f9ae279ff4061b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Verstappen of Verstappen , Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Norris | 74c | 1,622$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.58 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Verstappen | 26c | 555$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.7 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Verstappen | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Verstappen | 66c | 182.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Verstappen | 36c | 180$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2954…d34ebacked Verstappen | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Verstappen | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…143bbacked Verstappen | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…51ccbacked Verstappen | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Norris | 69c | 62.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Verstappen | 26c | 54.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Verstappen | 24c | 44.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Norris | 76c | 42.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- F1 Dutch GP: Verstappen vs. Norris this page
- F1 Dutch GP: Albon vs. Sainz Albon won
- F1 Dutch GP: Alonso vs. Stroll Stroll won
- F1 Dutch GP: Hadjar vs. TsunodaHadjar won
- F1 Dutch GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Hamilton won
- F1 Dutch GP: Hamilton vs. Russell Russell won
- F1 Dutch GP: Leclerc vs. Russell Russell won
- F1 Dutch GP: Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.