F1 · resolved market
F1 Dutch GP: Hamilton vs. Russell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0733cb149300525884e5e264d8dfdbfd39234d1c51740ae29b5951331eb46f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Russell of Hamilton, Russell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hamilton | 27c | 2,121$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.77 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Russell | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Russell | 70c | 283.33$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Hamilton | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Hamilton | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Russell | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Hamilton | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Russell | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Russell | 42c | 45.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3371backed Russell | 74c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…2051backed Hamilton | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Russell | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Hamilton | 57c | 23.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Russell | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- F1 Dutch GP: Hamilton vs. Russell this page
- F1 Dutch GP: Albon vs. Sainz Albon won
- F1 Dutch GP: Alonso vs. Stroll Stroll won
- F1 Dutch GP: Hadjar vs. TsunodaHadjar won
- F1 Dutch GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Hamilton won
- F1 Dutch GP: Leclerc vs. Russell Russell won
- F1 Dutch GP: Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- F1 Dutch GP: Verstappen vs. Norris Verstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.