MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51fdd882c488daf4518cf83777b42345f5e5f42f4f0a880f003b3e8a52f58f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 1,008$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.9 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 535.8$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.76 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 439.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 349.06$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 314.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 273.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 271.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 255$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 254.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 27c | 209.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 181$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 162.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 162$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 141.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 129.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 126.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 122.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 120.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 119.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 101.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 99.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 95.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 83.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 67.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chicago White Sox | 25c | 65.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 61.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 55.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago White Sox | 24c | 53.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 45.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 44.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 42.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.