MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb1df3bb7cf91e331e95edbf4751d9ed8b4df83069edaf171e7d59b9337bd7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 52c | 584.37$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.68 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 58c | 369$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 44c | 309.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 294.67$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 56c | 292.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 5c | 254.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 46c | 182.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 179.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 177.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 163.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 120.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 50c | 113.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 104.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 59c | 88.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 55c | 68.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 47c | 40.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 46c | 32.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 70c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 27.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.