Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520bcfd0c3434a29a01931c2b62efe337a2a3685d1b96b39dd3a90f53e68bab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 43c | 397.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.58 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 267.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 232.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 201.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 192.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 46c | 186.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 157.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 72c | 154.09$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 146.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 111.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 110.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 99.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 98.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 98.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 49c | 97.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 91.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 38c | 74.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 45c | 73.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 73.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 41c | 70.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 68c | 70.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 67.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 58.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 50c | 53.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 61c | 52.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 48.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 51c | 48.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 47.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 47.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 46.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 52c | 46.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 63c | 46.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 70c | 44.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…bb58backed Yes | 66c | 43.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 67c | 43.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 33c | 42.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 69c | 42.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 50c | 38.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 68c | 35.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked No | 71c | 34.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 32.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 55c | 32.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 62c | 31.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 30.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 54c | 29.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 29.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 69c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 26.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 24.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 23.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 57c | 22.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 60c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 54c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 52c | 19.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 78c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…edfdbacked No | 62c | 18.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 68c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 65c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…728fbacked Yes | 79c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.