Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91fed65ad73d3b29fa755c457a8deabec546b57946d6ea3f86ed0cfad6c3eaa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 35c | 397.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 40c | 353.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 25c | 292.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 72c | 278.71$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 69c | 265.42$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 76c | 235.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 233.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 66c | 233.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 181.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 177.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 38c | 138.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 134.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 127.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 107.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 79c | 102.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 18c | 101.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 24c | 99.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 96.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…51d3backed Yes | 21c | 94.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 93.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 67c | 92.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 68c | 89.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 81.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 81.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 24c | 79.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 38c | 77.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 18c | 75.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 74.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 72.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 37c | 65.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 75c | 62.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 38c | 61.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 56.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 33c | 56.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 33c | 55.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 71c | 54.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 42c | 54.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…1637backed Yes | 23c | 50.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 73c | 50.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 67c | 48.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 47.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 24c | 46.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 75c | 45.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 44.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 24c | 41.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 40.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 34c | 40.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 40.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 38.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139c…97c4backed Yes | 38c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 37c | 38.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 35.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 34c | 34.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 63c | 34.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 38c | 32.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 70c | 31.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 60c | 27.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 24.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 69c | 24.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 77c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…2128backed No | 69c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.