Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52251b2c7d957deefe4e6e1e5479f744ab5a88420a7e7afeaab2e85bf937adf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 4c | 937.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.98 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 7c | 723.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.73 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 25c | 557.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 4c | 532.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 348.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 315.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 257.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 9c | 220.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.7 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 210.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 167.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 77c | 161.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5f…d76bbacked Yes | 9c | 140.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,016.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…0a58backed No | 78c | 135$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 117.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 93.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed No | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 86.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 71.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 58c | 71.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 69.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 65.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 59.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 59.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 71c | 54.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 48.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 34c | 46.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 42.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 67c | 41.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 69c | 36.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 30.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 28.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 71c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 67c | 20.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…06b0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 72c | 14.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.