Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3827bc46bc2c3bbde74462717ade94fc713a96e4cc05524494bcd709c1a80918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 601.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 493.47$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…d41abacked Yes | 28c | 360.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 265.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 162.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 122.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 72c | 92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 19c | 86.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…fc55backed Yes | 27c | 75.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 24c | 74.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 69.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 24c | 65.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 64.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 54.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 46.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 67c | 35.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…16dcbacked No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 78c | 16.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 72c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.