Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32951435d9609ca06ed81e473ad3a3d037fd0c79c5164f3fa27e3955892a29ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 34c | 553.69$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.83 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 498.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 439.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 38c | 418.16$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 8c | 339.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 321.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 73c | 219.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 156.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 50c | 143.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 75c | 136.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 135$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 129.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 126.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 119.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 110.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 23c | 98.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 93.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 82.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 41c | 78.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 77.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 58c | 76.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 75.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 70c | 70.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 61c | 67.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 63c | 65.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 31c | 63.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 34c | 59.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 59.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 58.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 56.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 52.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 50.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 49.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 25c | 45.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 47c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 40.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…3caebacked No | 68c | 36.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 35.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…ba17backed No | 62c | 28.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 78c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 22.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 57c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 65c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 62c | 20.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 67c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 18.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.